Thursday, November 1, 2007

Framing the Question of Value

Regular readers know that my interest in Carl Jung extends to his development of the concept of synchronicity. In this context it is worth exploring two of the most recent stories in the financial news. On the one hand we have a barrel of US light crude oil, which yesterday "rose as high as $96.24 before falling back to $93.16." On the other hand we have a share of Google stock, which closed yesterday at $707. In both cases further growth is anticipated. Analysts anticipate that the oil price will pass the $100 mark before the end of this year, while Associated Press Business Writer Michael Liedtke cites a similar projection of further growth for Google:

Dinosaur Securities analyst David Garrity on Wednesday issued a bullish report predicting Google's stock will climb to $985 during the next year.

What does this mean? Is it anything more than a demonstration of the absurdity of comparing apples and oranges? I think so, because it provides us with an opportunity to consider that oft-touted concept of "wealth creation" is consider its implications. Consider first how Liedtke illustrates this concept:

Brin and Page, both 34, have been the biggest winners by far, with estimated fortunes exceeding $20 billion apiece. At least two other Google executives, Chairman Eric Schmidt and sales chief Omid Kordestani, are billionaires while hundreds of other employees have become millionaires because of their stock holdings in the 9-year-old company.

In light of the other story, I suppose this means that Brin and Page will not have to worry about fueling their corporate jet (or do they now have a fleet of them?); or, put another way, the price of oil is not going to have any impact on their contribution to the carbon footprint (which, for me at least, is a slightly more depressing perspective). From a more positive point of view, it may mean that Google can afford to invest even more in the private transportation system it has provided to relieve its employees of the burden of driving to work in their own cars.

Still, the denizens of the Googleplex are a pretty elite crowd. What does this mean for the rest of us? Those of us who own shares of Google stock are not going to use it as a lever for getting better prices for a gallon of gasoline for our cars. If most shareholders believe Garrity, they will probably stay on for the ride and count on Google to provide them with either a nest egg for retirement or a financial cushion when they find themselves reorganized our of a job. Meanwhile, the price of gasoline will continue to rise; and the company that makes those big numbers that display the prices of the different grade levels will probably encounter a surge in business as the demand for the number "4" rears its head. Since funding for improving public transportation does not seem to get the attention that Google gives to its private system, most of us shall continue to be held hostage by our own cars when comes to providing food and clothing, not to mention earning the money to pay the mortgage or rent on shelter.

The purpose of this exercise is to demonstrate that, whatever numbers may tell us, they are incapable of saying anything about the social world in which they are embedded; and that social world is seriously out of whack. We are being blind-sided on both sides: On the one hand we are presented with a vision of prosperity that benefits fewer individuals than the myth-makers would have us believe; and on the other we are hit with yet another attack on our ability to afford our daily routines. Students of twentieth-century history may recognize such a social world as a breeding ground for fascism. It remains to be seen whether such catastrophic consequences will actually ensue; but, if they do, we cannot say that we did not get the warning signs.

Of course another perspective comes from considering Michael Klare's "Age of Insuffiency" analysis for The Nation, which would lead us to wonder whether or not Google stock will continue to rise when there is a shortage of energy to run all of their servers and workstations!

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